NZ Timber Sector Breathed a Sigh of Relief at 10% US Tariff, but Future Hikes Loom

Highlights:

• New Zealand’s forestry sector expressed cautious relief after the United States imposed a 10% tariff on most softwood timber exports, effective October 14.
• Vangelis Vitalis, deputy secretary at MFAT, said officials were “surprised and relieved” by the moderate rate but warned tariffs could rise as NZ’s trade surplus with the U.S. grows.
• Industry leaders are preparing for potential future hikes and focusing on value-added production to offset the impact of the new duties.

Relief Mixed With Uncertainty

New Zealand’s forestry industry reacted with cautious relief after the United States announced a 10% tariff on most softwood timber imports. At the time of writing, industry leaders say that while the rate is less severe than feared, the door remains open for higher duties if trade imbalances persist.

According to Deputy Secretary Vangelis Vitalis of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT), officials were “surprised and relieved” by the moderate tariff, but warned that New Zealand’s growing trade surplus with the U.S. could draw greater scrutiny in future rounds. The new tariff kicks in from October 14 for all affected softwood exports.

What’s Driving the Concern

The moderate 10% duty has been welcomed as a lesser blow than anticipated, especially given that some industry observers expected much higher rates. Nonetheless, exporters stress that even this increase will raise costs and margins. Many see this as a test—if New Zealand’s timber trade continues to expand, Washington may reconsider higher tariffs in response.

To date, Radio New Zealand has reported that forestry groups described the 10% rate as “a bit of relief” but cautioned of ongoing financial strain. The New Zealand Herald also covered the tariff announcement and its likely impact on exporters.

Risks Ahead & Sector Resilience

Because the tariff is nonbinding in its future escalation, exporters must remain nimble. Larger losses may emerge if tougher duties are introduced later. Exporters with orders already underway may be hit if shipments cross under the new regime. Despite the headwinds, the forestry industry is no stranger to volatility. Many firms are doubling down on value-added manufacturing, branding, and diversification to buffer against tariff shocks. The next few months will be critical—not just in managing the 10% rate, but in monitoring whether further U.S. tariff escalation is triggered by trade dynamics.

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